At BookExpo America, Podcasting and e-books are discussed as ways to adapt in a time of reduced readership.NEW YORK—Will writers someday outnumber readers? Members of the American Booksellers Association met here Thursday at BookExpo America to deal with that question, and to discuss the challenges of a rapidly-changing high-tech marketplace.
The annual meeting, which began in the days of Mark Twain, will feature several panels on how to sell published content to increasingly elusive readers.
"Authorgeddon" was the dire prediction of a tongue-in-cheek announcement by print-on-demand publisher Lulu.com, referring to a future when new books come to outnumber readers.
The announcement warns that double-digit annual increases in the number of new book titles, combined with the fact that only 57 percent of adults read even a single book last year—down from 61 percent a decade ago—means that someday there won't be enough readers for all the books getting published.
Bob Young, the CEO of Lulu, concedes that the scenario is purely fantasy, but it does illustrate the fact that the publishing world is facing drastic changes.
"It may sound ridiculous," Young said, "but the latest industry figures show yet another steep rise in the number of Americans publishing a book each year, alongside a continuing fall in the numbers reading them."
Click here to read a how-to guide to self-publishing with Internet service Publishing On Demand.
According to a recent report by R. R. Bowker LLC, the number of books published in 2004 reached an all-time high of 195,000, a 14 percent increase from 2003, continuing a trend from the previous two years.
"What these figures really show," Young said, "is that the publishing industry as we know it is unraveling—like the music industry before it—as new, more efficient ways of publishing, involving print-on-demand and Internet distribution, emerge in its place."
Lack of time, rather than lack of literacy, is behind the decrease in readership, in the opinion of Don Katz, CEO of Audible.com. In an early morning speech he explained his belief that technology is enabling a return to a preference for oral culture over written culture, a preference whose roots date back to Plato and Socrates.
Katz' electronic audio book company has recently posted eye-popping 91 percent revenue growth and 141 percent growth in the number of new readers, due largely to the proliferation of iPods and other portable audio devices.
Read Jim Louderback's commentary arguing the merit of e-books here.
He also pointed out that 97 million Americans drive to work alone every day, totaling over 600 million hours of drive time that could be well used listening to audio books.
Katz announced a new partnership with Harlequin Enterprises Ltd. to repurpose romance novels as Web soap operas, as well as an alliance with Pearson Education to create audio study guides to accompany some of Pearson's textbooks. Both Pearson and Audible said they believe that iPod-carrying students will learn more from the combined offering than from textbooks alone.
Katz also said he feels that these Podcasts are a natural path for Audible, adding, "We've been Podcasting for 8 years."
Katz also speculated on the prospects for literacy itself based on his own experience as a parent. "I'm not so sure what the future of reading will be," he said, referring to his teenagers' tendency to watch TV, do homework and send e-mails simultaneously. "You do kind of wonder what the future will bring in terms of this literacy phenomenon."
The educational segment of BookExpo opened today, and the exhibits open tomorrow, with an expected attendance of over 30,000. The show runs through Sunday.
Graphics Tools 
