RIM remains confident despite falling shares as a result of its warning that costs of making high-end mobile handsets like the BlackBerry Bold would eat into its margins. RIM expects to add subscribers and predicts more revenue than analysts expected.TORONTO (Reuters)—Lower margins and profits may be the painful but necessary
price that Research In Motion has to pay to capture a bigger market share with
new models of its BlackBerry smartphones.
RIM shares fell about 25 percent on Friday to their lowest level in more
than a year, a day after it warned that the costs of launching third-generation
handsets like the high-end BlackBerry Bold would eat into its gross margins.
The components needed for the latest smartphones are expensive, RIM said,
but that spending is necessary if the company is to continue growing its market
aggressively.
"It is understandable that margins are going to be pressured when you
are introducing several new products with more expensive components," said
First Analysis Securities Corp analyst Scott Pope. "Of course, this is
essentially a requirement given the increased competition in the smartphone
industry."
RIM has held its own despite competitive threats from Apple's popular iPhone
and other handsets from the likes of Motorola and Nokia. One of the reasons for
its success has been the sturdy, reliable and increasingly fashionable design,
both on the outside and inside the BlackBerry.
But such competition—particularly against the iPhone in the consumer market—can
be costly. And to continue its torrid pace of growth, RIM has to make its
increasingly feature-rich handsets attractively priced.
That, in turn, means the Waterloo, Ontario-based company is limited in its
ability to pass along higher component costs to its customers.
"Without the ability to pass on the cost to your customers, they're
willing to eat it to get it back in the form of higher volumes," said
Research Capital Corp analyst Nick Agostino.
Part of RIM's answer to the cost challenge will rest in eventually squeezing
suppliers on component prices.
While this may be expensive at first, RIM
appears confident the move will pay off. For the current quarter, it expects to
add 2.9 million subscribers, which would push its total well over 20 million.
It also expects revenue of $2.95 billion to $3.1 billion—higher than analysts
expected, according to Reuters Estimates.
Still, the market is now focusing on the company's gross margin, which plays
a key role in determining RIM's worth.
"It's ridiculous, but that swing in gross margin is enormously
important in terms of driving the share price," said Duncan Stewart,
president of Duncan Stewart Asset Management.
He said if RIM's margin recovers in the next quarter or so to levels more
palatable to investors and analysts, the shares could rocket back to $140 on
Nasdaq.
If the margin pressure continues, however, the stock will likely continue to
languish below $100, he said. It was at $71.99, down 26 percent, on Nasdaq, and
down a similar amount on the Toronto Stock Exchange at C$74.18.
ECONOMY WOES DISMISSED
Some analysts have long held concerns that some of RIM's large corporate
clients could scale back BlackBerry purchases and upgrades as the economic
downturn takes hold. The recent turbulence on Wall Street has underscored those
worries.
However, RIM's guidance for revenue and subscriber additions reassured
observers that the economic impact right now is limited.
"We need more evidence of failure to sell devices before we start
saying it's a weak economy or it's people being laid off from Lehman
Brothers," Stewart said.
Agostino and Pope also cited anecdotal
evidence that laid off workers in the financial sector end up buying personal
BlackBerrys anyway.
"If the enterprise side of the business is having an impact, then
they're certainly able to absorb it by going after the consumer," Agostino
said.
The term "enterprise" refers to RIM's large corporate and
government clients.
However, Agostino added that if the financial crisis spills over from Wall
Street to Main Street,
consumer buying patterns could change.
That might mean RIM's rapidly growing base of retail consumers decides to hold
off BlackBerry purchases.
That, Agostino said, is "the bigger question mark."
($1=$1.03 Canadian)
(Reporting by Wojtek Dabrowski;
editing by Rob Wilson)
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