Opinion: Before we can move on to whatever "Web 3.0" is, we need to wrap our heads around two things: Copyright law and Net Neutrality.Is it time for a reality check?
While Joe Schmo down in the server room is still trying to figure out this whole Web 2.0 thing, the New York Times has declared that we're now on the viruses and spam, Microsoft co-President Jim Allchin is claiming that Vista won't need anti-virus software. And while average users are still having a tough time understanding this blog thing, just about every wanna-be hip company on the planet is setting up shop in Second Life, annoying the living bejezuz out of Second Life residents and journalists alike.
Now here comes Steve Ballmer claiming that Microsoft's move to Web services is "the most important technological transformation during the next decade."
Yeah. Right.
OK. Maybe that's a little harsh. Maybe I shouldn't be so sarcastic. After all, I'm as big a geek as anyone when it comes to digging cool new technology (feel free to read my stuff if you don't believe me). But when it comes to the idea of everyone moving from running software on their computers to running it exclusively on the Web, I'm more than a little skeptical.
Why? It's not the technology....we've got that in spades and I have no doubt that there are plenty of smart people out there making sure that it's gonna keep getting better. And it's not for lack of desire: I for one would love to see the end of endless install rituals and annoying update downloads. Nope, what really's got me worried about this Brave New Web Services World comes down to two issues: Net Neutrality and copyright law.
First the Net Neutrality issue. Unless the Internet is maintained as a level playing field for everyone, Web services can't work in the long term. Sure, giants like Microsoft and Google can afford to pick up the extra tab when the telecoms get their way, but it's going to be a lot tougher for small startups to gain traction when they want to put their services online and have to spend a big chunk of their capital on paying the toll to have the speeds that allow them to compete against the big boys. As a result, people might be able to tap into Web services to get their Office and E-mail functions online, but they'll still have to resort to local programs when it comes to all those other functions we all rely on with our PCs. Innovation will be stifled, confusion will reign, and nobody will be happy.
But perhaps the bigger specter looming over the promised land of Web services, Web 2.0 (3.0?) and social computing is that of copyright and the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA).
All of these wonderful new developments depend on the free-flow of information across the Internet, the ability to collaborate with other users, and the storage of information on remote servers...all requirements which are being increasingly threatened by over-zealous copyright holders and IP-crazed organizations like the MPAA and the RIAA. ISPs have already been sued) over the actions of their subscribers, an action which would seem to have a bit of a chilling effect on the desire for ISPs to host large social spaces or anything that even comes close to dreaded "file sharing"...even if that sharing's amongst users in a single company. The RIAA itself has been a bit...ummm...zealous when it comes to suing people, and other organizations like the Entertainment Software Association haven't been shy about suing over ridiculous "infringements" on their copyright rights.
In a world where Microsoft has to pre-pay shakedown money just to launch a new (and already rights-crippled) MP3 player and Hormel tries to stop usage of the word "spam" when referring to junk email, and Google has to set aside $200 million in advance of YouTube lawsuits, companies thinking of moving their data and applications to the Web might be wise to think twice before committing.
After all, if the RIAA is willing to sue the dead for copyright infringement, wouldn't they be willing to bring big suits against workers who might be using their spankin' new Web Services to share a song or two (or a film clip or a picture)? The payoff would be a lot higher then what a dead grandma could pay, that's for sure.
Breathless pronouncements and prognostications aside, unless we can resolve net neutrality and the current copyright mess, we've got a long way to go until we reach the promised land.
Don't believe the hype.
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