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How Broadcast Television Will Survive in an On-Demand World
By Jason Boog

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Companies are busy putting content out on the Web for audiences to listen to and watch.

November 2005 may have been the month when the major broadcast networks finally "got" the Internet.

On November 7th, both CBS and NBC cut deals with digital television providers to allow viewers to buy 99-cent downloads of a few popular shows.

Later that week, CNN rolled out a "final beta" of CNN Pipeline, its streaming media service that delivers unique content via the Web.

Click here to read more about CNN rolling out a new streaming news service.

Meanwhile, ISP-cum-portal AOL began offering a range of television shows in a digital format on the Web, while Tivo incorporated Yahoo's interactivity with its cable-box service.

Earlier this year, Yahoo also announced they had hired popular video journalist Kevin Sites to report on war zones across the world.

Industry pundits agreed that traditional broadcast networks were busily searching out new revenue streams to buffer falling TV ad returns, while portals were capitalizing on increased broadband connectivity and Internet fluency among consumers.

"The computer has crashed into the Internet," said Brian L. Roberts, CEO of Comcast Corp., the nation's largest cable operator, to BusinessWeek.

But what do all these Internet/TV deals really mean? If 2005 was the year that TV finally "got" the Internet, what will 2006 bring?

Publish.com forged through the snowy speculation with a team of Web experts and emerged with a few ideas about what television will look like next year.

Smaller Media Some experts think that smaller, nimbler cable networks will beat the Goliath broadcast networks in the technological race next year.

David Card, a senior analyst at the Web analysis firm, Jupiter Research, stressed that no one technology can save television. Instead, the prize will go to networks that can incorporate these changing technologies quickly.

"ESPN and HBO are forward-thinking companies with a single brand and a single audience, but they deliver content through multiple channels," he explained. "These are the companies of the future."

For example, HBO introduced an "HBO On Demand" service in 2001, allowing cable subscribers to watch and control digital copies of popular programs on the television screen—beating CBS and NBC to the technological punch by years.

"It's a very successful product. We've seen a slight increase in our revenue stream," HBO spokesperson Jeff Cusson explained. "But it increases the stickiness factor [and] increases how valuable customers find our services."

According to Cusson, HBO On Demand subscriptions rose to eight million this year, up from just three million subscribers last year.

Video (and Audience Tracking) on Demand All the experts agreed that Web programming of television shows will be hot in 2006 as well.

Last month, Massachusetts-based marketing firm Burst Media surveyed 3,300 Web users, discovering that nearly 20% would purchase "online on-demand programming" and another 32 percent were undecided.

For Biff Burns, the marketing vice-president at Burst Media, that's a clear trend. He advises television networks to take advantage of customers with broadband connections next year.

"[Consumers] watch, read, listen to what they want, when they want. The computer is fast becoming the machine of choice in households to watch video, listen to music, play games, shop, converse with friends and search for information," he said.

While David Card agreed that these on-demand programming will rise in 2006, he also believed that incremental pay-models will be less successful than HBO's subscription model.

"Americans don't buy things in little pieces. By and large, Americans like to subscribe to things," said Card. "These major buying and usage changes can take up to 20 years."

In 2006, networks will achieve a clearer view into consumers' lives, rendering Neilson ratings and network sweeps obsolete.

These developments have already affected Podcasts, as Audible.com recently equipped certain files with simple audience-tracking functions.

Web consultant Mitch Ratcliffe has studied these controversial files on his blog, and stressed that these developments will soon reach video files as well.

"Eventually, producers will want to see numbers about the audience," he said. "Whatever the new business models are, they will be built on much more data than before."

As digital television, iPod video and other interactive technologies evolve next year, it's unavoidable that advertisers and vendors will exploit the flipside of interactivity—an increased ability to monitor consumers.

Cross-Platform Advertising Finally, in 2006, advertisers will figure out how to reach customers that surf television content at will and avoid the pre-planned commercials that still dominate networks.

The ad firm Saatchi & Saatchi made headlines this month when CEO Kevin Roberts spoke at the Ad:Tech marketing and technology conference. Roberts introduced the concept of "sisomo": the way that consumers process "sight, sound, and motion" as television evolves in the 21st century.

While traditional networks can only offer advertisers slots on a single broadcast stream, nimbler networks already interact with viewers on multiple channels and customize the message for consumers.

"Technology has taken that involvement to new heights of impact, exhilaration and interactivity," explained Allen Banks, executive media director at Saatchi & Saatchi in New York. "[It] requires of us more creativity, bigger ideas and more engaging interactivity than consumers have ever experienced."

One example of such a strategy is CNN's recent multi-million dollar deal with Chrysler that covers advertising on every digital platform.

ESPN also provides a vital model for interactivity between advertisers and customers. The network includes Interactive TV, radio, Internet, print and pay-for-view properties, allowing advertisers a broad range of options for placement—coupled with a painstakingly researched awareness of customers using each medium.


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