Opinion: Taking a look at back at who was right and who was wrong in their predictions for 2005.Cyberpundits like me live for the end of the year. Why? Because it's when we get to throw caution to the wind, polish off the crystal ball, and write our sage Predictions for Next Year.
Rather than have to comment on what is, we all get to write about what will be safe in the notion that nobody's ever going to call us out on them. After all, the Web's a fast moving place, right? News from an hour ago is considered old. Who the heck is going to go back and check to see if something we wrote a year ago was accurate or not? Nobody, that's who.
Except me.
Yup, as a humbling beginning of the year exercise, I went back to some of the top tech publishers and blogs and took a look at what they were predicting for 2005. And boy, it sure teaches you that it's safer just to keep your mouth shut.
Take popular tech site Kuro5hin. Besides being off on a lot of sports and media predictions ("The general fear of the FCC within broadcast media will begin to wane in 2005"?), they also blew it on a bunch of Net stuff.
"Google will see troubled times in 2005!" they declared, a prediction strikingly wrong and strikingly similar to what Fortune is predicting in 2006.
They also predicted that Gmail would have "limited immediate impact outside of tech circles," that spyware would be the word of the year in security circles (I wish!), and that "at many major companies personal e-mail and Internet browsing may become a thing of the past." I guess they haven't checked their server logs lately.
Pete Blackshaw over at ClickZ also flubbed more than a few.
While he was right about RSS being embraced, he was off more than a bit about the foreseen consumer backlash against commercials being played at the start of movies, wireless access going to ad-supported models, and a backlash against "sight, sound and motion" in TV and online advertising. I wish.
Superpundit John Battelle had more than his share of hits, predicting the rise of Firefox marketshare, the "long tail" gaining traction in "old media" circles, and that 2005 "may be a more fractious year in the blogosphere."
On the other hand, he also predicted that there wouldn't be a video iPod released in '05, that a "third-party platform player with major economies of scale (ie eBay or Amazon) will release a search related innovation that blows everyone's mind," and that mobile will finally be plugged into the Web in a way that makes sense for the average user."
Google's mobile search has gotten us closer, but for the average user, we're a ways away. Overall, though, kudos John for some good hits.
Robert Scoble had a slew of predictions ranging from the downright goofy ("several executives will get fired for NOT blogging") to the dead wrong ("Apple Computer will ship a computer that uses a pen and a digitizer that is combined with the screen."), but overall did a pretty good job hitting on the importance of blogging in '05.
On the other hand, Podcaster extraordinaire Chris Pirillo succeeded by planting tongue firmly in cheek and prognosticating such "so funny we wish they were true" events as "eBay will eBay itself on eBay," and "it becomes legal to sterilize/castrate spammers under vigilante justice." Ouch!
On the other hand, he actually got dangerously close to the truth when he predicted that the "RIAA will make writing on any kind of CD illegal" and that "Everybody and their grandmother will have a Podcast that's just as boring and useless as their blogs." True. Sad, but true.
There were tons of other predictions from the more mainstream press, including these stinkers from New York magazine, this mixed bag from ComputerWorld, and even these wacky "psychic" predictions pushed by About.com.
In the end, the point is that it's tough to predict our fast-moving world with any real accuracy, especially the chaotic world that those of us in the Web biz work and live in.
It's a lot safer to do year-end wrap-up lists (check out this site for an absolutely humongous "list of lists" for 2005) or post behind the anonymity of a username on Slashdot.
Personally, I'm picking Cameron Moll as "most likely to be right" when it comes to Web design and development in the new year.
But anyone can complain, right? In the interest of sticking my neck out, I'm going to end this column by giving you my list of 11 predictions for 2006. Bookmark this and write me a year from now:
Minimalism is in: The success of sites like Craigslist and Google will continue to drive a "less is more" aesthetic in Web design.
Mobile takes off: Google Mobile has proven that you can do some cool stuff with just text messaging. Look for others to follow. Google doesn't falter: Whether its stock stays up or not, it's got more cash than God. Watch for big new things from Google that'll keep people talking.
Standards become big again: Microsoft's refusal to stick to Web standards and Firefox's desire to work with 'em all will drive more discussion about standards than ever.
AJAX or die: If you don't know AJAX now, you'd better start boning up. It's becoming mainstream enough that the most clueless clients will start demanding it.
The future will be ad-supported: Ad-supported models are back (see Microsoft), and more companies will start enhancing revenues by putting advertising in everything (and everywhere).
Everyone wants games: Just as AJAX is the bandwagon-du-jour, so will gaming be in 2006. Clients from every sector will demand their developers include some sort of games in their sites.
Timeshifting and portability: It isn't just Podcasting, videocasting, and portable iPod TV shows that's the trend—the real underlying trend is that people crave control over how and where they experience their media. Look for more efforts to let folks take their shows on the road.
Backend and frontend split: As applications become more complex (that AJAX thing again), Web shops may be forced to split up into development houses and design shops rather than one-stop-for-everything places.
Time saving rules: Time is the one thing nobody's making more of and with more devices, sites, and media out there, look for someone to strike it rich by helping people save time through technology.
That's it. The crystal ball's gone dark. Happy 2006!
Web Design 
