Apple's upcoming support of Podcasting in iTunes could do more than make the process of finding and listening to the RSS-based audio downloads easier. It also could set the stage for paid Podcasts and lead Apple competitors to join in, say analysts and PoWhen Apple Computer Inc. CEO Steve Jobs took the stage last week at Apple's major developer conference, he brought with him a message about the future of broadcasting linked inextricably to the iPod.
Jobs gave the highest-profile blessing yet from a technology executive for an emerging form of audio downloads called Podcasting. He promised upcoming support in Apple's widely used iTunes Music Store and media player for both finding Podcasts and automatically tracking and downloading the audio files.
Podcasting, which derives its name from the iPod, centers on the distribution of MP3 and other audio downloads through RSS-feed subscriptions and that are played on PCs or portable audio players.
The implications of Apple's move, though, go beyond proselytizing the new medium of Podcasts. By building Podcasts directly into iTunes, Apple could help turn Podcasting into a more mainstream activity, usher in an era of premium downloads and pressure its digital music rivals to follow suit, say analysts and producers of Podcasts.
In an on-stage demonstration at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference, Jobs showed how Apple is integrating both the discovery of Podcasts and subscriptions to their feeds into iTunes, including a directory of Podcast programs.
The Podcast support is expected in the release of iTunes 4.9, which is due out by late July. Jobs had given a similar Podcasting demonstration to a more limited audience during the media-focused D: All Things Digital conference.
"It's going to basically take Podcasting mainstream to where anyone can do it," Jobs said at WWDC.
Will Podcasting be a fad? Click here to read an opinion about the direction of Podcastings.
Los Angeles-based radio personality David Lawrence, who provides Podcast versions of some of his radio shows, believes that Apple's move could alter the way listeners track and download Podcasts.
Today, listeners either download Podcasts directly from a Web site or subscribe to a Podcast RSS feed using an aggregator for Podcasts, such as iPodder or jPodder. Those aggregators let users download Podcasts as the feeds are updated.
Once downloaded, users usually must sync the audio programs to their iPod or other digital audio players once discovered by iTunes or another media player.
Apple is simplifying that process by building the RSS subscriptions and Podcast downloads into the same piece of software, iTunes, used to sync the iPod, Lawrence said.
"In that one motion of saying let's bypass the aggregators and make Podcasts a part of iTunes, Apple is just opening more reason to buy an iPod and use the iTunes Music Store," said Lawrence, whose shows, including the "David Lawrence Show," is syndicated to satellite radio and to 50 AM stations such as Chicago's WGN.
Other technology analysts, though, said they believe the Podcast aggregators could continue to play a significant role, particularly for listeners using non-iPod MP3 players. Apple is more likely to focus its Podcasting efforts on more mainstream content, such as higher-quality Podcasts coming from established broadcasters, said Marc Strohlein, vice president and lead analyst at Outsell Inc.
"The whole process of downloading files and installing [Podcasts] is not nearly as polished as the kind of things you'd expect from Apple," Strohlein said. "One of the big impacts that Apple is going to have is they'll up the ante for all the people doing these tools for accessing Podcasts."
Next Page: Podcasting: Another source of revenue for Apple?
By jumping into Podcasting, Apple also is likely anticipating the potential for another source of revenue. So far, Jobs has focused his discussion on free Podcasts being made available both through a Podcast directory on iTunes and by users entering the URL to a Podcast's RSS feed for tracking.
But analysts expect iTunes to eventually provide premium Podcasts, where users might pay per download as they do for songs or on a subscription basis.
"We'll start to see the market cleave into people serving free content for the goodness of mankind, and then people like Apple will help sell content and make money," Strohlein said.
Apple's move, though, is about more than money. The Cupertino, Calif., company also is capitalizing on the perception that Podcasting is somewhat synonymous with Apple's iPod.
"From the Apple side, this is not only potentially another revenue generator, but it also puts [Apple's] ownership on the technology," said Su Li Walker, an analyst at the Yankee Group. "Up until now, Apple has acknowledged Podcasting but never mentioned doing anything with it."
Just what impact the iTunes support of Podcasts will have on user adoption of the audio downloads remains unclear. To be sure, Podcasting remains in its infancy, having only become a concept over the past year.
But market analysts are projecting rapid adoption, though their numbers vary considerably. Market analyst Forrester Research Inc. projects that Podcasting will grow from reaching 300,000 U.S. households this year to 12.3 million by 2010.
Meanwhile, the Diffusion Group, a consumer technology consultancy, is more bullish. It estimates that Podcasting will grow from reaching 4.5 million U.S. consumers this year to 56.8 million by 2010.
To Strohlein, iTunes support does not equal an immediate spike in Podcast users, though over time it could attract users who otherwise would have been unfamiliar with the audio programs.
"If Apple really is just bringing up free Podcasts, then it will come down to the number of Podcasts and how compelling the content is," he said.
Apple is unlikely to be the only major music-download player to step into Podcasting, though. Walker said she expects iTunes competitors and online services, particularly RSS backers such as Yahoo Inc. and MSN, to follow Apple's entry into Podcasting.
"Ultimately, this does put a bit of pressure on the content aggregators to say that if you're going to be in this market then you need to speed up the process," Walker said.
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