Opinion: Macromedia's ubiquitous technology has a bright future, but don't expect it to replace Windows Media Player, Real Player or QuickTime for streaming.There is no doubt that if you are looking to create design-rich, immersive content on the Web, Macromedia's Flash technology is the way to go.
The Flash player is by now installed on the vast majority of computers connected to the Internet.
Macromedia cites an astounding 98 percent market share for its player software, compared to 59 percent for Apple's QuickTime and just over 50 percent for Windows Media Player.
Over the years, Flash has become the standard for creating rich interactive content on the Web.
Yet, when we wish to watch video content in our Web browsers, more often than not, what is proposed to us is a choice of player software such as Windows Media Player, Real Player or QuickTime.
While these players can be embedded in a Web page, their focus is mostly to do what they do best: stream video to the client's desktop at the highest possible quality and frame-rate.
Compared with these player technologies, Flash has a lot to offer: It is much easier to create an immersive experience where the video material is integrated into a complete environment, and not just a simple player window.
In other words, video becomes part of a complete communications project: It is not surprising that an increasing number of Web sites dedicated to upcoming movies are built using Flash.
And Flash has another considerable advantage in its transparent cross-platform support and support for a great variety of browsers.
Flash sites look and feel exactly the same whether you are running it on a Windows PC or on a Mac, and Macromedia is increasingly supporting handheld devices and smart-phones.
Samsung produces Flash Lite-enabled mobile phones. Click here to read more.
And honestly, not being confronted with a confusing Web page inquiring about the player software and type of connection you use is certainly a step toward making broadband content more attractive for nontechnical users.
All this adds up to making Flash increasingly attractive as a platform for delivering video on the Web, and Macromedia is hard at work to build the online ecosystem to support such initiatives.
But does this mean that Flash will over time displace the dedicated media players out there?
Next Page: The desired user experience.
Macromedia would certainly like to see this happen and is aggressively pushing Flash as the platform of choice for all kinds of video delivered online.
How the market will react is a different story, however.
There is no doubt that video support in Flash will increase the number of companies who are using video in their Web-based marketing and communication.
Read more here about the increase in the volume of Flash projects on embedded devices.
But that is only one part of the market.
The question we will need to ask ourselves is: What does the user get out of a particular solution?
Let me try to be more specific.
When all I want to do is to access the latest movie trailers in a hassle-free way, a site such as Apple's QuickTime Movie Trailers provides an efficient solution, and Flash would not add much to that experience.
It is only once I want to find out more about a film I'm particularly interested in that I might go the dedicated Web site put up by the production company. There, Flash makes a lot of sense.
The question is whether Flash's more interactive environment adds or subtracts from the desired user experience.
When, we go to see a movie, few of us will remember the interior decoration of the theater, but the quality of the film projection, the size of the screen and the sound quality will stick with us.
When I watch video as part of a Web site that informs me about a car I want to purchase, Flash is the ideal environment.
When I'm dying to see the latest video of my favorite group, all I need is best possible picture and sound quality and the smoothest frame rate my connection can get me.
In short, it is unlikely that we will see one single standard take over video playback on the Web.
Flash became ubiquitous because it came on the market early and was by far the best way of delivering complex designs even at low bandwidth.
Flash Video will certainly gain market share in many areas, but less as an alternative to QuickTime or Windows Media Player than as an enabler for ubiquitous video. This, however, may turn out to be an enormous market.
Andreas Pfeiffer is founder of The Pfeiffer Report on Emerging Trends and Technologies.
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